JR’s blog
JR’s blog
JR’s blog
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(12)
posts
(12)
Pre-registering another postcard experiment
posts
Typical of a political operative in an even-numbered year, I’ve spent October wondering how much of the past year of my life has gone to waste.
Oct 23, 2024
John Ray
A year of Democratic spam texts
posts
If you read this blog you get a lot of text messages from strangers who want your money. I’ve never texted you but on various social platforms I am often one of those strangers making asks of people…
Oct 20, 2024
John Ray
Pre-registering a postcard experiment
posts
This cycle, I designed a small postcard experiment that I outline here. In short, I wrote just over 3,200 postcards to low-turnout Republican voters living in very red areas…
Oct 1, 2024
John Ray
A view from the garden
posts
Summer is upon us once again in Texas and the glorious nuisances of nature are in full bloom. The humidity has increased the insect population around the compost pile, a…
May 19, 2024
John Ray
Voters Will Take Risks To Avoid A Loss - But Not To Ensure Gains
posts
In the classic
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
(1979), Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky report the results of several…
Mar 20, 2024
John Ray
The J6ers Who Just Won Republican State Legislative Primaries
posts
Throughout the past couple of cycles, I have been tracking the electoral fortunes of “election deniers” up and down various…
Mar 6, 2024
John Ray
Its Okay To Enjoy Special Elections, But Only As A Treat
posts
Have Democrats “overperformed” in special elections recently? If they have, how much confidence should we have that this overperformance heralds a strong result in November…
Jan 22, 2024
John Ray
The 2024 State Legislature Landscape
posts
This post is the first in a series about the state legislative races going on in 2024. I’ve put together a dataset on the roughly 7,400 state legislative incumbents in the…
Jan 2, 2024
John Ray
Introducing the Texas Precinct Explorer!
posts
I’m excited to show off my newest Shiny app, the Texas Precinct Explorer! The app is designed to provide a large volume of Texas political data at your fingertips to advise your thinking about the state of Texas. It is available to anyone…
Oct 16, 2023
John Ray
Issue 1 2023 and Sherrod Brown 2018 Precinct Dataset and Preliminary Comparison
posts
Comparing the 2018 Senate race and the 2023 Issue 1 election suggest that, despite The Discourse, Sherrod Brown probably…
Oct 1, 2023
John Ray
Testing different messages with postcards in Pennsylvania
posts
I wear a lot of hats in my day to day. I’m a pollster. I use data to raise money for Democrats. I’m doing my best to foster a culture of activism here in Texas.
Mar 11, 2023
John Ray
What happens when Speaker of House votes take awhile?
posts
Welcome to 2023. Is this anything? Who knows.
Jan 7, 2023
John Ray
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