| State | Chamber | District | Winner | Party | Relation to Jan. 6 | Most Recent Two-Way Margin % | Approximate District Dem Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | Lower chamber | 27 | David Eastman | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 30% | 20% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 1 | Quang Nguyen | R | Election Denier | + 34% | 34% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 3 | Justin Wilmeth | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 46% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 10 | Kevin Payne | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 43% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 10 | Beverly Pingerelli | R | Election Denier | + 20% | 36% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 12 | Steve Montenegro | R | Election Denier | + 12% | 41% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 14 | Leo Biasiucci | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 23% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 27 | Travis Grantham | R | Election Denier | + 13% | 39% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 29 | Jacqueline Parker | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 34% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 31 | Teresa Martinez | R | Election Denier | + 6% | 46% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 43 | Gail Griffin | R | Election Denier | + 19% | 36% |
| AZ | Lower chamber | 45 | Lupe Diaz | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 36% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 7 | Wendy Rogers | R | Disinformation Spreader | + 27% | 36% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 10 | Dave Farnsworth | R | Disinformation Spreader | Uncontested in most recent election | 37% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 14 | Warren Petersen | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 39% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 15 | Jake Hoffman | R | Fraudulent Elector | + 29% | 34% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 19 | David Gowan | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 36% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 27 | Anthony Kern | R | Fraudulent Elector ( running for AZ-8 Cong ) | + 10% | 43% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 29 | Janae Shamp | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 17% | 41% |
| AZ | Upper chamber | 30 | Sonny Borrelli | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 23% |
| CA | Lower chamber | 33 | Devon J. Mathis | R | Disinformation Spreader | + 24% | 45% |
| GA | Lower chamber | 31 | Emory Dunahoo | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 21% |
| GA | Lower chamber | 100 | David Clark | R | Election Denier | + 29% | 33% |
| GA | Upper chamber | 21 | Brandon Beach | R | Election Denier | Uncontested in most recent election | 29% |
| GA | Upper chamber | 48 | Shawn Still | R | Indicted Election Denier | + 13% | 41% |
| IA | Lower chamber | 81 | Luana Stoltenberg | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 0% | 51% |
| IL | Lower chamber | 101 | Chris Miller | R | Present on Jan 6 | Uncontested in most recent election | 30% |
| MI | Lower chamber | 36 | Steve Carra | R | Disinformation Spreader | + 32% | 33% |
| MI | Lower chamber | 51 | Matt Maddock | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 15% | 38% |
| MI | Lower chamber | 79 | Angela Rigas | R | Disinformation Spreader | + 31% | 31% |
| MT | US House | MT-01 | Ryan Zinke | R | Disinformation Spreader | + 3% | 46% |
| NC | Lower chamber | 109 | Donnie Loftis | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 21% | 39% |
| NM | Lower chamber | 51 | John Block | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 26% | 35% |
| PA | Upper chamber | 33 | Doug Mastriano | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 37% | 30% |
| SC | US House | SC-07 | Russell Fry | R | Election Denier | + 34% | 40% |
| SC | Upper chamber | 29 | Gerald Malloy | D | Election Denier | + 7% | 53% |
| TX | Lower chamber | 96 | David Cook | R | Disinformation Spreader | Uncontested in most recent election | 41% |
| TX | Upper chamber | 8 | Angela Paxton | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 18% | 39% |
| VA | US House | VA-02 | Jen Kiggans | R | Election Denier | + 3% | 3% |
| WI | Lower chamber | 22 | Janel Brandtjen | R | Disinformation Spreader | + 29% | 31% |
| WV | Upper chamber | 3 | Michael Azinger | R | Present on Jan 6 | + 31% | 28% |
Throughout the past couple of cycles, I have been tracking the electoral fortunes of “election deniers” up and down various elected offices in the United States. Despite evidence that election deniers systematically underperform at the ballot box, many continue to hold (and advance to higher) elected offices throughout the country, particularly in state legislatures.
Resources such as The Insurrection Index and Republican Insurrectionists track the January 6 attendees (“J6ers”) and others who played a material role in January 6 as they proceed with their political careers. Here, I briefly summarize the election deniers who won their primaries last night on Super Tuesday 2024, specifically those in the state legislatures.
About forty election denying state legislators won their primaries last night. This includes ten state legislators who were physically present on January 6, one who was indicted his role in planning January 6, two who materially contributed to the various January 6 “ancillary plans” by admitting to serving on a “false elector” slate in their state, thirteen who contributed materially to the ancillary plans by demanding to delay certification, signing onto post-election legislation that would overturn the 2020 election results, or otherwise seek in some active, material way to alter the result of the 2020 election. The Insurrection Index classifies a further eight of these material contributors as “disinformation spreaders” if they, in addition to materially contributing to January 6 or a state ancillary plan, were particularly malicious in their spread of disinformation related to the 2020 election.
The following table summarizes these forty-one legislators, who are now general election candidates for their state legislature in 2024. (Note that in 2023, January 6 attendee from Virginia, John McGuire, won his primary as well, but he is not on the ballot in 2024)
One insecapable fact jumps out right away: Most election deniers run in extremely safe districts. The column Most Recent Two-Way Margin % shows the percentage point victory the candidate enjoyed in their previous general election, i.e., the number of percentage points above their most recent Democratic competitor by which the candidate won. (Also note that Arizona, for example, has multi-member lower chamber districts, which slightly understates the electoral safety of incumbents in those districts as their margin would be theoretically halved compared to an equal race in a single-winner district) The rightmost column of the table provides a sort of “Approximate composite Democratic district score” as computed by DRA, which provides a rough idea of how a generic Democratic running at “a generic level of office” would perform in that district. So, the higher the Most Recent Two-Way Margin % the worst it is for Democrats, and the lower the Approximate District Dem Composite the worse it is for Democrats. I’ve highlighted the two districts where election deniers are running in “Dem positive” districts. Unfortunately, they are both situated in legislatures that are not particularly competitive in 2024.
Crucially, I note these are the Republican candidates for state legislatures who have a known, publicly available, and rather direct relationship to January 6. There are doubtless more whose role is still not established as a matter of public record – but beyond that, election denial is the mainstream Republican view in 2024. While this list shows those with a relatively strong and direct link to January 6, the overwhelming (and false) view of the Republican party in general is that January 6 was a worthy endeavor. This list does not suggest there are only forty election deniers on the ballot in 2024. As a matter of stated belief, there are likely thousands of them.